See exactly when you'll reach your goal weight — based on your metabolism, activity, and calorie intake.
Your Weight Loss Timeline
Weight Milestone Timeline
These projections assume a constant calorie intake and activity level. In practice, your metabolic rate decreases slightly as you lose weight (adaptive thermogenesis), so actual results may be 10–15% slower than projected. Re-calculate every 4–6 weeks for accuracy.
Weight loss comes down to one principle: energy balance. When you consume fewer calories than your body burns, it taps into stored energy (primarily body fat) to make up the difference. This is called a calorie deficit.
It takes a deficit of roughly 7,700 kcal to lose 1 kg of body fat (or 3,500 kcal per pound). So a daily deficit of 500 kcal produces about 0.45 kg (1 lb) of fat loss per week — and a 1,000 kcal deficit doubles that to ~0.9 kg (2 lbs) per week.
Your body burns calories through three channels: Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) — the energy needed to keep organs, brain, and cells running at rest (60–75% of total burn); the Thermic Effect of Food (TEF) — energy used digesting meals (~10%); and Physical Activity — everything from walking to intense exercise (15–30%). Together, these make up your Total Daily Energy Expenditure (TDEE).
Not all deficit sizes are equally sustainable. A smaller deficit is easier to maintain, preserves more muscle mass, and is less likely to trigger metabolic adaptation. Here's a breakdown of common weight loss paces:
| Pace | Weekly Loss | Daily Deficit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gentle | 0.25 kg (0.55 lbs) | ~275 kcal | Very sustainable, minimal hunger |
| Moderate | 0.5 kg (1.1 lbs) | ~550 kcal | Recommended for most people |
| Fast | 0.75 kg (1.65 lbs) | ~825 kcal | Requires discipline, some muscle risk |
| Aggressive | 1.0 kg (2.2 lbs) | ~1,100 kcal | Hard to sustain, higher muscle loss risk |
Medical guidelines generally recommend losing no more than 0.5–1 kg per week. Going faster increases the risk of muscle loss, nutrient deficiencies, gallstones, and metabolic slowdown. Never eat below 1,200 kcal/day (women) or 1,500 kcal/day (men) without medical supervision.
Adaptive thermogenesis is your body's survival mechanism. As you lose weight, your body becomes more efficient — burning fewer calories at rest and during activity. Studies show metabolic rate can drop by 10–15% beyond what weight loss alone would predict. This is why the last few kilograms feel so much harder than the first.
Water weight fluctuations are the biggest source of day-to-day confusion. Starting a diet often causes a dramatic initial drop (2–3 kg in the first week) as your body depletes glycogen stores, each gram of which holds 3–4 grams of water. Conversely, a high-sodium meal or carb-heavy day can add 1–2 kg overnight — none of which is fat.
The plateau effect: As you get lighter, your TDEE decreases because there's less body mass to fuel. A deficit that worked at 90 kg might be maintenance at 75 kg. This is why recalculating your calorie target every 4–6 weeks is essential for continued progress.